Charlotte +1.5 WIN: Model correctly identified the Hornets' recent ATS momentum (12-6 L18) and 76ers' underperformance relative to talent
Grizzlies/Rockets UNDER WIN: Properly weighted Ja Morant's absence (-6.5 points) and both teams' defensive capabilities
WHAT MISSED
Warriors +8.0 LOSS: Massive overadjustment for injuries. Adding 15 points for Warriors' absences was excessive - the team completely collapsed offensively (83 points)
Bulls -2.5 LOSS: Overvalued short-term hot streak (5-1 SU) against Lakers' talent. BPI ratings suggested this was fool's gold
Pacers/Hawks UNDER LOSS: Underestimated pace factors - both teams ranked in top-10 for possessions per game, leading to 248 total
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence rating failed: HIGH confidence Warriors pick was the worst miss (-17 points), while MEDIUM confidence picks performed better
Systematic injury bias: Model appears to overweight injury impacts with compounding multipliers, especially for role players
Pace blindspot: Consistently underestimated totals for up-tempo teams
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Cap injury adjustments: Limit total injury impact to maximum 8-10 points regardless of multiple players out - teams adapt better than modeled
Integrate pace metrics: Add possessions per game and pace rankings directly into total calculations rather than relying purely on BPI efficiency ratings