UNDER bets hit 2/3 - Model correctly identified pace mismatches and defensive trends, particularly CHI@IND staying 14.5 points under 237.5 despite a close game
Line value identification was directionally correct - Bulls +2.5 lost by only 0.5 points, confirming the market mispricing was real even if it didn't cash
WHAT MISSED
HIGH confidence spread pick failed spectacularly - Bulls +2.5 was analyzed as 6.3 points of value but lost in a close game, suggesting overconfidence in BPI differences for struggling teams
Road favorites severely underperformed - Lakers got blown out by 30 at Cleveland, Warriors failed to cover as 8.5-point road favorites. Model may underweight road travel fatigue vs talent gaps
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence rating was poorly calibrated - The HIGH confidence Bulls pick failed while no confidence ratings were given to the successful UNDER bets
Systematic bias toward talent over situation - Model heavily weighted BPI ratings but missed situational factors like Indiana playing desperate basketball at home vs a mediocre road team
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Reduce confidence on road underdogs with large BPI edges - When talent differential conflicts with market line this severely, consider situational factors may be driving the market for good reason
Weight recent form more heavily for sub-.500 teams - Indiana's poor record may not reflect their current competitive level, especially in home spots where pride/effort can overcome talent gaps