Charlotte +3.5: Model correctly identified massive injury impact (Irving, Thompson, Davis out) worth 10+ points swing, overriding Dallas home court advantage
MIA/CHI UNDER 238.5: Back-to-back fatigue factor was accurately weighted - both teams shot poorly in sluggish 229-point game
WHAT MISSED
Milwaukee -2.5 vs Washington: Model underestimated how bad Milwaukee has become (ranked #26 BPI) - they're not just underperforming, they're fundamentally broken
HOU/ATL OVER 222.5: Hawks' "hot streak" was fool's gold - got blown out 104-86, suggesting pace/efficiency metrics were stale
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Injury adjustments worked well for Dallas game but need refinement for lesser players (Nets +6.5 hit despite multiple Tier 2/3 outs)
BPI rankings seem accurate for top/bottom teams but middle-tier teams like Milwaukee require more recent form weighting
Back-to-back fatigue correctly predicted in totals but wasn't applied to Milwaukee spread
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Recency bias for struggling teams: Weight last 10 games more heavily for teams >5 games below .500 - traditional metrics lag for collapsing rosters
Pace adjustment refinement: The HOU/ATL total miss suggests defensive efficiency changes aren't being captured quickly enough in real-time
Record: 3-3 individual bets, 1-1 parlays. Model showed good injury evaluation but needs better real-time team form assessment.