Backtest Results - Friday, January 30, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| New York Knicks -7.5 |
Trail Blazers 97 - Knicks 127 |
Covered by 22.5 |
| Detroit Pistons +2.5 |
Pistons 131 - Warriors 124 |
Covered by 9.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets +3.5 |
Nets 109 - Jazz 99 |
Covered by 13.5 |
Spread Record: 3-0 (+3.0u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| SAC @ BOS UNDER 217.5 |
Kings 93 - Celtics 112 (Total: 205) |
Under by 12.5 |
| MEM @ NOP UNDER 231.5 |
Grizzlies 106 - Pelicans 114 (Total: 220) |
Under by 11.5 |
| POR @ NYK UNDER 223.5 |
Trail Blazers 97 - Knicks 127 (Total: 224) |
Over by 0.5 |
O/U Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg |
Pick |
Outcome |
| 1 |
Detroit Pistons +2.5 |
WIN |
| 2 |
SAC @ BOS UNDER 217.5 |
WIN |
| 3 |
MEM @ NOP UNDER 231.5 |
WIN |
Parlay Result: WIN (+2.6u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category |
Record |
Units |
| Spreads |
3-0 |
+3.0 |
| Over/Under |
2-1 |
+0.9 |
| Parlay |
WIN |
+2.6 |
| Daily Total |
|
+6.5 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- Injury impact assessment was excellent: Detroit +2.5 hit easily as the model correctly identified Jimmy Butler's absence would significantly weaken GSW, leading to a 7-point cover
- Under totals in injury-depleted games: SAC/BOS and MEM/NOP unders hit by double digits as the model properly weighted how missing star players would crater offensive production
- Fade terrible teams on the road: Brooklyn +3.5 covered by 13.5 against Utah, validating the approach of backing bad teams getting points against equally bad home teams
WHAT MISSED
- POR/NYK total miscalculation: The under 223.5 lost by 0.5 points (224 actual). Model may have underestimated NYK's ability to run up the score against Portland's decimated roster - this was more about pace than expected scoring
- Didn't capture some blowout potential: Lakers covered -10.5 easily (31-point win) and Magic covered -2.5 by 8, suggesting the model was too conservative on some spreads
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
- High confidence picks performed well: The parlay (Detroit +2.5, two unders) hit cleanly, suggesting confidence ratings were properly calibrated
- No major systematic bias detected: Mix of favorites and dogs hit, suggesting balanced approach to line evaluation
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Blowout potential refinement: Add pace/tempo adjustments when massive talent gaps exist - teams like NYK may push tempo higher against depleted opponents than model assumes
- Secondary injury effects: Consider how remaining healthy players on injured teams might see usage spikes that affect totals (role players getting more minutes/shots)
Overall: 6-1 night with strong reasoning. Minor total calculation tweaks needed.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category |
Record |
Win % |
Units |
| ATS |
16-11 |
59.3% |
+12.7 |
| O/U |
13-11 |
54.2% |
|
| Parlays |
4-5 |
|
|
| Season Total |
|
|
+12.7u |
View original analysis