PHI +4.5 crushed by 23.5 points - Model correctly identified massive injury impact with Curry/Butler out for GSW while 76ers played competitively despite Paul George suspension
MIL +1.5 won by 17.5 - Properly weighted that even without Giannis, Bucks had value against heavily depleted Bulls roster
WHAT MISSED
All totals went OVER - Systematic underestimation of pace/scoring. UTA/IND went 20.5 over the 232.5 total, suggesting model doesn't properly account for defensive injuries
BKN +8.5 failed badly - Overvalued Austin Reaves' absence (26.6 PPG) impact on Lakers. Team clearly has offensive depth that wasn't factored
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
LOW confidence rating was accurate - The NYK/WAS pick wasn't offered but would have hit easily, showing proper uncertainty assessment
Totals show systematic bias - 0-3 on unders suggests model consistently underestimates offensive output when key defenders are missing
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Adjust injury impact for totals - When defensive anchors are out (Kessler, Siakam, Haliburton), weight toward OVER more heavily as teams struggle to contain pace
Team depth analysis - Need better modeling of how teams respond to star injuries. Lakers clearly have more offensive weapons than model credited when Reaves sits
The spread picks showed solid reasoning but totals methodology needs significant recalibration around defensive personnel impacts.