Backtest Results - Thursday, February 5, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| HOU -4.5 | Hornets 109 - Rockets 99 | Failed to cover by 14.5 |
| TOR -7.5 | Bulls 107 - Raptors 123 | Covered by 8.5 |
| PHI @ LAL | Could not match team: PHI @ LAL | NO_RESULT |
Spread Record: 1-1 (-0.1u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| CHI @ TOR UNDER 226.5 | Bulls 107 - Raptors 123 (Total: 230) | Over by 3.5 |
| GSW @ PHX UNDER 214.5 | Warriors 101 - Suns 97 (Total: 198) | Under by 16.5 |
| CHA @ HOU UNDER 218.5 | Hornets 109 - Rockets 99 (Total: 208) | Under by 10.5 |
O/U Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Rockets -4.5 | UNMATCHED |
| 2 | CHI @ TOR UNDER 226.5 | LOSS |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Spreads | 1-1 | -0.1 |
| Over/Under | 2-1 | +0.9 |
| Parlay | LOSS | -0.5 |
| Daily Total | +0.3 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- GSW @ PHX UNDER 214.5: Model correctly identified both teams missing key offensive players (Curry, Booker) and predicted a low-scoring affair. Final total of 198 crushed the under.
- TOR -7.5: Analysis properly weighted Chicago's massive injury depletion (Giddey, Jones, Collins) despite Toronto also missing key pieces. Bulls' undermanned roster couldn't compete.
WHAT MISSED
- HOU -4.5: Model underestimated Charlotte's hot streak momentum (5 straight wins) and overvalued Houston's home court advantage. Rockets failed to cover by 14.5 points - a massive miss.
- CHI @ TOR UNDER 226.5: Despite correctly identifying depleted rosters, model didn't account for potential pace inflation from poor defense. Total went over by 3.5 points.
The Houston loss appears to be variance/momentum underweighting rather than a systematic flaw, but the margin was concerning.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
- Confidence ratings were appropriate: Model showed "PASS" on Brooklyn spread due to uncertainty, which was prudent given the analysis quality.
- No clear systematic bias observed in this small sample, though the Houston miss suggests potential underweighting of recent team form/momentum.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Incorporate recent form metrics: Add weighted moving averages for team performance over last 5-10 games, especially for teams on significant winning/losing streaks.
- Refine pace adjustments for depleted rosters: When both teams missing key players, consider whether remaining players tend toward faster pace due to looser rotations and less structured offense.
Overall: 3-3 record with solid reasoning on winners. The Houston loss magnitude suggests room for improvement in situational adjustments.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category | Record | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS | 24-17 | 58.5% | +9.2 |
| O/U | 21-20 | 51.2% | |
| Parlays | 4-11 | ||
| Season Total | +9.2u |