Backtest Results - Friday, February 6, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| NYK +3.5 |
Knicks 80 - Pistons 118 |
Failed to cover by 34.5 |
| IND -1.5 |
Pacers 99 - Bucks 105 |
Failed to cover by 7.5 |
| - |
Could not match team: - |
NO_RESULT |
Spread Record: 0-2 (-2.2u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| NOP @ MIN UNDER 236.5 |
Pelicans 119 - Timberwolves 115 (Total: 234) |
Under by 2.5 |
| MEM @ POR UNDER 234.5 |
Grizzlies 115 - Trail Blazers 135 (Total: 250) |
Over by 15.5 |
| LAC @ SAC UNDER 222.5 |
Clippers 114 - Kings 111 (Total: 225) |
Over by 2.5 |
O/U Record: 1-2 (-1.2u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg |
Pick |
Outcome |
| 1 |
NYK +3.5 |
LOSS |
| 2 |
NOP @ MIN UNDER 236.5 |
WIN |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category |
Record |
Units |
| Spreads |
0-2 |
-2.2 |
| Over/Under |
1-2 |
-1.2 |
| Parlay |
LOSS |
-0.5 |
| Daily Total |
|
-3.9 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- NOP @ MIN UNDER 236.5 hit cleanly - Model correctly identified that extensive injuries on both sides would create ugly, low-scoring basketball despite high total
- Injury impact assessment was directionally correct - Teams missing key players (MEM, IND, MIL) all struggled offensively as predicted
WHAT MISSED
- NYK +3.5 catastrophic failure - 38-point blowout loss despite 9-game win streak. Model severely underestimated B2B fatigue impact on DET and overvalued NYK momentum
- Over/under calibration off on 2/3 picks - MEM/POR and LAC/SAC both went over despite injury-depleted rosters, suggesting model overweights injury impact on pace/scoring
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
- Confidence levels weren't tracked in original analysis - Need to implement tiered confidence system to evaluate hit rates by conviction level
- Systematic bias toward unders when injuries present - Model appears to overestimate how much key player absences suppress scoring in today's pace-heavy NBA
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Recalibrate B2B fatigue multipliers - Current +3.5 adjustment for DET proved insufficient; teams on back-to-backs after emotional losses may need +5-7 point penalty
- Update injury impact coefficients for totals - Modern NBA depth and pace may require reducing injury penalties by 20-30% for over/under calculations, especially when both teams are depleted
Overall: 2-4 record suggests model needs significant recalibration on situational factors and injury weighting.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category |
Record |
Win % |
Units |
| ATS |
24-19 |
55.8% |
+5.3 |
| O/U |
22-22 |
50.0% |
|
| Parlays |
4-12 |
|
|
| Season Total |
|
|
+5.3u |
View original analysis