PHI +2.5 win: Injury analysis correctly identified Booker's absence as more impactful than Embiid being questionable. Model properly valued the 76ers' depth advantage.
Conditional logic framework: The Jokic decision tree approach was methodologically sound, even though the pick missed.
WHAT MISSED
Total predictions (0-3): Massive systematic failure. DEN/CHI went 22.5 points OVER, while both other games went significantly UNDER by 11.5+ points each.
Injury impact overestimation: Model appears to have overvalued missing role players (Gordon, Watson for Denver) while underestimating remaining core talent's ability to compensate through increased usage.
Pace assumptions: Totals suggest the model's pace projections were fundamentally flawed, particularly in high-profile games.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence ratings incomplete: Original analysis shows conditional confidence but lacks clear HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW designations across all picks for proper calibration review.
Spread vs. total disconnect: 1-2 spread record suggests reasonable game flow understanding, but 0-3 totals record indicates scoring environment miscalibration.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Recalibrate injury multipliers: Current role player impact adjustments (+2.0-2.5 points) appear inflated. Consider reducing to +1.0-1.5 for non-All-Star contributors.
Implement pace regression analysis: Add recent 10-game pace trends and opponent-adjusted defensive ratings to better predict total scoring environments, especially in nationally televised games where pace often differs from season averages.