Backtest Results - Sunday, February 8, 2026

SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD

Spread Record: 0-0 (0.0u)

OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD

O/U Record: 0-0 (0.0u)

PARLAY RESULT

Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)

DAILY SUMMARY

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS

WHAT WORKED

• Methodology was sound but untestable - The injury adjustment framework correctly identified major impacts (Tatum out = +5.0 pts against BOS), but lines weren't available for validation
• BPI calculations appeared reasonable - The base spread calculations showed logical differentials between team strengths

WHAT MISSED

• Complete analysis failure - No actual betting recommendations were made due to unavailable lines, making this analysis worthless for wagering
• Poor timing/preparation - Publishing analysis when lines are "TBD" provides zero actionable value to bettors

MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES

• Cannot assess confidence accuracy - No picks were made, so confidence calibration is impossible to evaluate
• No systematic bias detectable - Without actual predictions vs. results, bias analysis is impossible

METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER

• Implement line monitoring system - Don't publish analysis until confirmed market lines are available for comparison
• Add contingency framework - When lines are unavailable, provide conditional recommendations (e.g., "If BOS opens -3 or higher, take NYK +3")

Bottom Line: This analysis was analytically competent but operationally useless. The injury adjustments and BPI methodology appeared sound, but without market lines for comparison, no betting value could be identified. The model needs better timing protocols - either wait for lines or provide conditional recommendations based on likely opening numbers.

CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD

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