Backtest Results - Monday, February 9, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| LAL +7.5 | Thunder 119 - Lakers 110 | Failed to cover by 1.5 |
| MIL +10.5 | Bucks 99 - Magic 118 | Failed to cover by 8.5 |
| NOP -9.5 | Kings 94 - Pelicans 120 | Covered by 16.5 |
Spread Record: 1-2 (-1.2u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| UTA @ MIA UNDER 239.5 | Jazz 115 - Heat 111 (Total: 226) | Under by 13.5 |
| DET @ CHA OVER 221.5 | Pistons 110 - Hornets 104 (Total: 214) | Under by 7.5 |
| MEM @ GSW OVER 218.5 | Grizzlies 113 - Warriors 114 (Total: 227) | Over by 8.5 |
O/U Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 | UNMATCHED |
| 2 | UTA @ MIA UNDER 239.5 | WIN |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Spreads | 1-2 | -1.2 |
| Over/Under | 2-1 | +0.9 |
| Parlay | LOSS | -0.5 |
| Daily Total | -0.8 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- UTA @ MIA UNDER 239.5: Correctly identified both teams' defensive capabilities despite high total. Jazz/Heat combined for 226 points, winning by 13.5.
- NOP -9.5: Properly weighted the talent gap between two struggling teams. Pelicans demolished Kings 120-94, covering by 16.5 points.
WHAT MISSED
- LAL +7.5: Model underestimated Thunder's ability to win decisively without SGA. OKC's depth proved stronger than anticipated, winning by 9 when spread suggested closer game.
- MIL +10.5: Massive miscalculation on Giannis impact vs Orlando's home court. Bucks got blown out 99-118, suggesting the +5.0 Giannis adjustment was insufficient.
- DET @ CHA OVER 221.5: Both teams shot poorly (total: 214), indicating model may have overvalued offensive ratings without accounting for defensive matchup dynamics.
The parlay loss was driven by the Lakers spread miss - a single point of failure that highlights concentration risk.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence levels weren't explicitly stated in the original analysis, making calibration assessment difficult. However, the injury impact calculations appear systematically flawed - particularly underestimating star player absence (Giannis) while potentially overweighting depth advantages.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Revise injury impact scaling: Current Tier 1 player impact (+5.0) appears too conservative. Consider +6-8 points for MVP-caliber players, especially in road situations.
- Integrate defensive pace matchups: The DET/CHA total miss suggests the model needs better defensive efficiency cross-matching rather than relying solely on offensive ratings and raw totals.
Final Record: 3-4 (42.9%)
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category | Record | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS | 26-23 | 53.1% | -1.0 |
| O/U | 24-26 | 48.0% | |
| Parlays | 4-15 | ||
| Season Total | -1.0u |