LAC +4.5 WIN: Correctly identified Clippers as undervalued despite poor record - the "underachieving" tag was spot-on as they showed up in a tight game
WAS +2.5 WIN: Properly factored in both teams being "heavily depleted" - injury adjustments created value on the massive underdog
IND @ WAS UNDER 232.5 WIN: Hit by 15.5 points - correctly assessed that depleted rosters would struggle offensively
WHAT MISSED
GSW +6.5 LOSS: Failed by 4.5 points. Model underestimated impact of Warriors missing Curry at home - defensive adjustments weren't sufficient to keep it close
PHX @ SAS OVER 230.5 LOSS: Massive miss (under by 15.5). Completely whiffed on Spurs blowout potential - didn't account for Phoenix road struggles against elite home teams
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Analysis shows inconsistent confidence weighting - no clear confidence tiers were established in the original analysis
Systematic bias toward underestimating blowout potential, especially with large talent gaps (BKN @ CLE spread was CLE -15.5, they won by 28)
Injury impact calculations appear sound for role players but may underweight star player absences
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Implement blowout threshold analysis: When BPI gap exceeds 10 points, factor in higher variance and potential for non-competitive games
Enhance pace/total correlation: The 4-2 O/U night suggests totals methodology needs refinement - consider team-specific pace adjustments in injury-depleted scenarios
Record: 3-3 overall, mixed results suggest model has foundation but needs recalibration on extreme scenarios.