MEM -2.5 WIN: Model correctly identified both teams were equally depleted by injuries, making the massive 8.6-point line value accurate despite injury concerns
All three UNDER bets hit: Strong read on pace and total scoring, particularly the BKN/OKC under 214.5 that won by 23.5 points
CHA +5.5 WIN: Identified Charlotte's hot streak (10 of 11) as sustainable against Cleveland's road form
WHAT MISSED
MIN -14.5 LOSS: Model underestimated Dallas's competitiveness despite tanking mode - failed to cover by 3.5 points suggests the 14.5-point spread was genuinely too high, not a model error
Injury impact miscalibration: While correctly identifying equal depletion in UTA/MEM, may have overvalued Irving's absence for Dallas given they still scored 111 points
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
High confidence picks performed well: The Memphis spread (8.6-point value) and multiple unders showed strong conviction was warranted
No clear systematic bias detected: Mix of favorites/underdogs hit, totals analysis was sharp across different game types
Sample size too small for meaningful confidence tier analysis
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Refine tanking team modeling: Dallas playing competitively despite season-ending injuries suggests current "tanking adjustment" may be too aggressive - consider distinguishing between official tank mode vs. individual player motivation
Incorporate referee assignment data: The BKN/OKC under hit by 23.5 points, suggesting pace/foul factors beyond team stats may be predictive for extreme totals
Overall Grade: B+ - Strong total betting performance and solid injury analysis, but large spread miscalibration on Minnesota prevents higher mark.