Bulls +9.5 WIN: The model correctly identified the Knicks' back-to-back fatigue as a key factor, with Chicago covering by 3.5 points despite being heavy underdogs
BOS @ LAL UNDER 229.5 WIN: Strong read on the total despite missing Tatum - the 200 total came in 29.5 points under, suggesting solid pace/efficiency analysis
WHAT MISSED
LAL +1.5 LOSS: Massively underestimated the impact of Tatum being out for Boston - the Celtics still dominated 111-89, indicating the model may overweight single-player absences
DAL @ IND UNDER 235.5 LOSS: The 264 total (28.5 over) suggests the model failed to account for pace increase when multiple key defenders are out - both teams shot efficiently without Irving/Haliburton defensive presence
ORL @ LAC UNDER 214.5 LOSS: Close game (111-109) but still went over by 5.5, likely due to underestimating competitive pace in tight contests
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
The analysis appears to overweight injury impact on spreads while underweighting how injuries affect game pace and totals
No clear confidence ratings were provided in the original analysis, making calibration assessment difficult
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Injury impact recalibration: Current model seems to overestimate how much star absences help underdogs on spreads - teams often compensate better than expected
Pace adjustment for defensive injuries: When key defenders are out, games tend to be higher-scoring due to increased possessions and efficiency - current totals model appears to miss this dynamic