Pelicans +1.5 hit as home dog with Curry out - correctly identified Warriors' road struggles without their superstar
Lakers/Magic UNDER 230.5 cashed - Wagner's absence for Orlando limited offensive ceiling as predicted
WHAT MISSED
Pacers +9.5 catastrophic miss - model severely overweighted injury impact without accounting for 76ers' role players stepping up (Maxey 30pts, bench production)
Sixers/Pacers UNDER 233.5 blown out - both teams shot lights out (PHI 53% FG, IND 50% 3PT) despite key injuries, suggesting pace/efficiency assumptions were flawed
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
HIGH confidence rating was completely wrong on the Pacers pick - this is a major red flag for confidence calibration
Model appears to have systematic bias toward overvaluing star player injuries without properly adjusting for:
Opponent quality differential
Role player variance/opportunity
Pace adjustments when rotations shorten
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Reduce injury multipliers - Current 4.5-point adjustment for Tier 1 players appears too aggressive, especially against weak opponents who can't capitalize
Add opponent-adjusted injury impact - Missing stars against bottom-5 teams (like IND) should carry less penalty than against playoff contenders who can exploit weaknesses
Overall: 2-4 record with poor confidence calibration suggests model needs significant recalibration on injury impact methodology.