OKC +10.5 hit - Model correctly identified market overreaction to Thunder injuries, recognizing that even depleted OKC could stay competitive
MIL +3.5 crushed - Properly valued home underdog getting points, even without Giannis
Two of three totals hit - OVER calls on OKC/DET and GSW/MEM were solid, capturing pace dynamics
WHAT MISSED
GSW -4.5 brutal loss - Model severely underestimated impact of Warriors' injuries (Curry, Butler, Porzingis all out). 21-point loss suggests injury adjustment methodology is flawed
CLE/MIL UNDER failed - Total went 12.5 points over despite missing multiple star scorers, indicating pace/efficiency factors weren't properly weighted
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence ratings appear uncalibrated - Only saw MEDIUM confidence picks, but hit rate was mixed (3-5 record). Need more aggressive confidence differentiation
Systematic injury bias - Model may be capping injury adjustments too conservatively. GSW with 4 key players out still got only standard adjustments
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Revise injury impact ceiling - Current 7-point cap is too low when elite teams lose multiple Tier 1/2 players. GSW scenario suggests 10-12 point adjustments may be warranted
Add pace-adjusted total methodology - Missing stars should trigger bigger total adjustments when it affects primary ball handlers/scorers who drive offensive efficiency
Overall: 5-3 record (62.5%) suggests model has merit but needs refinement on extreme injury scenarios.