BKN @ BOS OVER 210.5 (WIN): Despite missing Tatum, correctly identified Boston's offensive firepower would still dominate a terrible Nets defense. 259 total crushed the number by 48.5 points.
WHAT MISSED
DET -5.5 (LOSS): Overvalued Mitchell's absence impact (+4.5 points) - Cleveland still scored efficiently (119 points) and only lost by 3. Injury adjustments too aggressive for elite teams with depth.
MEM @ DAL OVER 238.5 (LOSS): Fell short by 9.5 points (229 total). Both teams' extensive injury lists created a sloppy, low-possession game that pace models didn't account for.
DEN @ OKC UNDER 233.5 (LOSS): Underestimated how competitive this game would be despite injuries. 248 total suggests both teams pushed pace more than expected.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Medium confidence rating on Detroit spread was appropriate - the 3.3-point edge wasn't as strong as calculated
No high confidence picks to evaluate calibration accuracy
Injury impact calculations appear systematically overvalued, especially for Tier 1 players on deep rosters
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Reduce injury impact multipliers by 25-30% for Tier 1 players on teams ranked top-10 in depth/BPI - elite organizations have better contingency plans
Add pace penalty for games with 4+ significant injuries combined - multiple absences create choppy, lower-scoring affairs regardless of team totals