Charlotte -7.5 (WIN): Model correctly identified the massive impact of Portland missing three key scorers (Lillard, Avdija, Sharpe). The 6.8-point edge calculation was accurate - Hornets covered by 8.5 points.
Injury impact methodology: The tiered injury system and compounding multiplier effectively captured how multiple key absences devastate offensive production.
WHAT MISSED
Lakers/Warriors analysis incomplete: The original analysis cut off mid-sentence, suggesting data processing issues. No clear Lakers spread pick was identified despite extensive setup.
Total predictions missing: Model focused heavily on spreads but didn't provide clear over/under recommendations despite calculating totals in the setup tables.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence rating worked: The MEDIUM confidence Charlotte pick hit, suggesting appropriate uncertainty assessment given injury volatility.
No systematic bias detected: Limited sample size, but the injury-heavy game was handled well while avoiding overconfidence.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Complete analysis generation: Fix technical issues causing incomplete analysis mid-game. Every game setup should have a clear recommendation.
Integrate totals methodology: Add systematic over/under analysis using pace, defensive efficiency, and injury impacts on offensive production - the Lakers/Warriors total hit despite no formal recommendation.
Bottom Line: Strong injury impact modeling but needs technical reliability fixes to ensure complete analysis delivery.