Backtest Results - Friday, March 13, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| Phoenix Suns +5.5 |
Suns 115 - Raptors 122 |
Failed to cover by 1.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks +13.5 |
Cavaliers 138 - Mavericks 105 |
Failed to cover by 19.5 |
| Detroit Pistons -15.5 |
Grizzlies 110 - Pistons 126 |
Covered by 0.5 |
Spread Record: 1-2 (-1.2u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| CHI @ LAC UNDER 235.5 |
Bulls 108 - Clippers 119 (Total: 227) |
Under by 8.5 |
| MEM @ DET UNDER 233.5 |
Grizzlies 110 - Pistons 126 (Total: 236) |
Over by 2.5 |
| NOP @ HOU UNDER 230.5 |
Pelicans 105 - Rockets 107 (Total: 212) |
Under by 18.5 |
O/U Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg |
Pick |
Outcome |
| 1 |
Phoenix Suns +5.5 |
LOSS |
| 2 |
CHI @ LAC UNDER 235.5 |
WIN |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category |
Record |
Units |
| Spreads |
1-2 |
-1.2 |
| Over/Under |
2-1 |
+0.9 |
| Parlay |
LOSS |
-0.5 |
| Daily Total |
|
-0.8 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- Detroit Pistons -15.5 (WIN): Model correctly identified Memphis as severely compromised without Ja Morant and other key pieces, leading to a dominant home performance
- Under bets in low-total games: CHI/LAC and NOP/HOU unders hit comfortably, showing solid total analysis for injury-depleted matchups
WHAT MISSED
- Phoenix Suns +5.5 (LOSS): Model overvalued Phoenix's ATS record without properly accounting for Toronto's home court advantage and situational motivation
- Dallas Mavericks +13.5 (LOSS): Massive failure - underestimated how catastrophic Kyrie's absence would be against a motivated Cleveland team. 33-point loss suggests model severely miscalibrated injury impact for tier-1 players
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
- Confidence alignment unclear: The analysis appears incomplete, but the Dallas pick (if high confidence) represents a major calibration error
- Injury impact inconsistency: Model handled Memphis injuries correctly but badly miscalculated Dallas without Kyrie - suggests tier-1 player adjustments need refinement
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Recalibrate tier-1 injury impact: Kyrie's absence warranted closer to 8-10 point adjustment, not the implied ~5 points used. Elite ball-handlers may have exponential rather than linear impact
- Weight situational motivation more heavily: Toronto at home getting points and Cleveland facing a depleted Dallas team both had clear motivational edges that the model undervalued
Overall: 3-4 record with significant losses on spread bets. The Dallas miscalculation was particularly costly and suggests fundamental flaws in elite player injury modeling.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category |
Record |
Win % |
Units |
| ATS |
43-42 |
50.6% |
-7.2 |
| O/U |
45-46 |
49.5% |
|
| Parlays |
6-28 |
|
|
| Season Total |
|
|
-7.2u |
View original analysis