Backtest Results - Monday, March 16, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| BKN +10.5 | Trail Blazers 114 - Nets 95 | Failed to cover by 8.5 |
| LAC +8.5 | Spurs 119 - Clippers 115 | Covered by 4.5 |
| ATL -3.5 | Magic 112 - Hawks 124 | Covered by 8.5 |
Spread Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| MEM @ CHI UNDER 243.5 | Grizzlies 107 - Bulls 132 (Total: 239) | Under by 4.5 |
| POR @ BKN UNDER 221.5 | Trail Blazers 114 - Nets 95 (Total: 209) | Under by 12.5 |
| LAL @ HOU OVER 225.5 | Lakers 100 - Rockets 92 (Total: 192) | Under by 33.5 |
O/U Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Hawks -3.5 | UNMATCHED |
| 2 | MEM @ CHI UNDER 243.5 | WIN |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Spreads | 2-1 | +0.9 |
| Over/Under | 2-1 | +0.9 |
| Parlay | LOSS | -0.5 |
| Daily Total | +1.3 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- Atlanta -3.5 WIN: Model's injury adjustment methodology was spot-on. Orlando missing Wagner (3.0 pts) and Black (1.5 pts) created a 4.5-point swing that moved the fair value to ATL -9.6, making -3.5 excellent value. Hawks covered by 8.5.
- Memphis/Chicago UNDER 243.5: Correctly identified the inflated total despite missing key scorers on both sides. Under hit by 4.5 points with a 239 total.
WHAT MISSED
- Lakers/Rockets OVER 225.5: Massive miss with total hitting only 192 (under by 33.5). Model failed to account for potential defensive slugfest between two teams fighting for playoff positioning - situational context was ignored.
- Portland -10.5: Trail Blazers covered easily (114-95) but model's BPI rankings were stale. Portland listed at #20 BPI but clearly tanking harder than Brooklyn's #29 ranking suggested.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence levels weren't explicitly stated in the original analysis, making calibration assessment impossible. However, the Atlanta pick showed strong conviction with detailed injury math, and it delivered. The Lakers/Rockets over appeared to have less conviction but still failed spectacularly.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Add pace/situation context for totals: The Lakers/Rockets disaster suggests the model needs defensive matchup analysis and playoff race motivation factors, not just raw BPI ratings.
- Real-time BPI updates: Portland covering by 19 against Brooklyn suggests the static BPI rankings don't capture late-season tanking dynamics. Need more current form metrics.
Overall: Injury modeling is sharp, but situational awareness for totals needs work.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category | Record | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS | 46-46 | 50.0% | -6.3 |
| O/U | 51-48 | 51.5% | |
| Parlays | 6-31 | ||
| Season Total | -6.3u |