Backtest Results - Thursday, March 19, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| LAL +5.5 |
Lakers 134 - Heat 126 |
Covered by 13.5 |
| No other qualifying bets |
Could not match team: No other qualifying bets |
NO_RESULT |
| - |
Could not match team: - |
NO_RESULT |
Spread Record: 1-0 (+1.0u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| PHI @ SAC UNDER 226.5 |
76ers 139 - Kings 118 (Total: 257) |
Over by 30.5 |
| LAC @ NOP UNDER 230.5 |
Clippers 99 - Pelicans 105 (Total: 204) |
Under by 26.5 |
| CLE @ CHI UNDER 238.5 |
Cavaliers 115 - Bulls 110 (Total: 225) |
Under by 13.5 |
O/U Record: 2-1 (+0.9u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg |
Pick |
Outcome |
| 1 |
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 |
UNMATCHED |
| 2 |
LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 230.5 |
UNMATCHED |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category |
Record |
Units |
| Spreads |
1-0 |
+1.0 |
| Over/Under |
2-1 |
+0.9 |
| Parlay |
LOSS |
-0.5 |
| Daily Total |
|
+1.4 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
WHAT WORKED
- Under bets on LAC/NOP (204 total) and CLE/CHI (225 total) - Both hit comfortably by 13.5+ points. Model correctly identified pace concerns and defensive matchups.
- Lakers +5.5 spread - Won by 13.5 points despite being on 3rd game in 4 nights. Model's situational adjustments for travel/rest may have been too conservative.
WHAT MISSED
- 76ers/Kings UNDER 226.5 - Lost by 30.5 points (257 total). Model failed to account for pace explosion when elite players are out - both teams played more uptempo without Fox/Embiid.
- Parlay structure issues - Results show "UNMATCHED" picks that weren't properly tracked, suggesting betting card execution problems.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
- No confidence ratings were provided in the original analysis, making calibration assessment impossible. This is a critical gap.
- Injury impact appears underweighted - The 76ers/Kings game went way over partly because role players shot more frequently with stars out, increasing possessions.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Add explicit confidence tiers (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) with minimum edge thresholds for each level. Current "NO BET" threshold of 2 points may be too conservative.
- Revise injury adjustments for totals - When star players are out, model should account for increased pace and shot attempts by role players, not just reduced efficiency.
Overall: 3-2 on individual bets but parlay tracking issues and missing confidence ratings indicate operational problems alongside analytical ones.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category |
Record |
Win % |
Units |
| ATS |
50-48 |
51.0% |
-9.6 |
| O/U |
54-54 |
50.0% |
|
| Parlays |
6-34 |
|
|
| Season Total |
|
|
-9.6u |
View original analysis