Backtest Results - Saturday, March 21, 2026
SPREAD PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| ATL -10.5 |
Warriors 110 - Hawks 126 |
Covered by 5.5 |
| UTA +5.5 |
76ers 126 - Jazz 116 |
Failed to cover by 4.5 |
| No other qualifying bets |
Could not match team: No other qualifying bets |
NO_RESULT |
Spread Record: 1-1 (-0.1u)
OVER/UNDER PICKS SCORECARD
| Pick |
Result |
Outcome |
| PHI @ UTA UNDER 229.5 |
76ers 126 - Jazz 116 (Total: 242) |
Over by 12.5 |
| MEM @ CHA UNDER 233.5 |
Grizzlies 101 - Hornets 124 (Total: 225) |
Under by 8.5 |
| No other qualifying bets UNDER 0 |
Game result not found |
NO_RESULT |
O/U Record: 1-1 (-0.1u)
PARLAY RESULT
| Leg |
Pick |
Outcome |
| 1 |
PHI @ UTA UNDER 229.5 |
LOSS |
| 2 |
MEM @ CHA UNDER 233.5 |
WIN |
Parlay Result: LOSS (-0.5u)
DAILY SUMMARY
| Category |
Record |
Units |
| Spreads |
1-1 |
-0.1 |
| Over/Under |
1-1 |
-0.1 |
| Parlay |
LOSS |
-0.5 |
| Daily Total |
|
-0.7 |
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS
Model Performance Review - March 21, 2026
WHAT WORKED
- ATL -10.5 WIN: Model correctly identified Warriors' vulnerability on back-to-back without Curry, Hawks covered by 5.5 points
- MEM @ CHA UNDER 233.5 WIN: Properly assessed impact of Memphis's depleted roster (10+ players out) leading to low-scoring affair (225 total)
WHAT MISSED
- PHI @ UTA UNDER 229.5 LOSS: Underestimated offensive output despite both teams missing stars - 242 total was 12.5 points over the line
- UTA +5.5 LOSS: Jazz failed to cover against injury-depleted 76ers, suggesting model overvalued home court advantage for bad teams
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
- Limited confidence ratings were provided in the analysis, making calibration assessment difficult
- The model correctly identified value in injury-heavy situations but struggled with totals accuracy
- Systematic issue: May be overweighting injury impact on totals while underweighting pace factors
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
- Refine totals modeling: Current injury adjustments appear insufficient for totals - need separate frameworks for spread vs totals when key players are out
- Home court recalibration: Bad teams (like Utah at 21-49) may not derive standard home court benefits, especially late in season when tanking incentives emerge
Overall: 2-2-1 record shows decent process but totals methodology needs work. Injury analysis was directionally correct but magnitude adjustments need refinement.
CUMULATIVE SEASON RECORD
| Category |
Record |
Win % |
Units |
| ATS |
52-50 |
51.0% |
-4.8 |
| O/U |
58-55 |
51.3% |
|
| Parlays |
7-35 |
|
|
| Season Total |
|
|
-4.8u |
View original analysis