Denver -5.5 (HIGH confidence): Model correctly identified massive injury impact to Portland's offense and Denver's home advantage. The 10.7-point edge calculation proved accurate.
Phoenix +4.5: Toronto road favorite situation was correctly flagged as vulnerable, with Phoenix covering by 26.5 points.
New York -21.5: Massive spread against league-worst Washington was justified, covering by 10.5 despite the large number.
WHAT MISSED
Both totals failed badly: POR/DEN went over by 24.5 and WAS/NYK by 29.5. Model appears to systematically underestimate scoring in blowout scenarios where injured teams can't play defense.
Pace adjustment missing: No consideration of how major injuries affect defensive rotations and pace, leading to inflated scoring.
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence rating worked: HIGH confidence Denver pick hit decisively while other picks had mixed results.
Injury impact calculation accurate for spreads: The +7.0 point injury adjustment for Portland was spot-on.
Systematic bias on totals: Model consistently underestimates scoring when teams are significantly undermanned.
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Add defensive impact multiplier: When teams miss 3+ rotation players, apply 1.1x multiplier to projected totals due to compromised defensive schemes.
Blowout pace adjustment: Games with 15+ point projected spreads should get +3-5 points added to total due to faster pace and reduced defensive intensity in garbage time.