CHA -17.5 (MEDIUM confidence) crushed by 26.5 points - Model correctly identified Sacramento's depleted roster as severely undervalued by the market, with 5 key players out including 3 Tier 2 contributors
SAC @ CHA UNDER 231.5 hit easily - Low-scoring blowout aligned with Kings' offensive limitations due to injuries
WHAT MISSED
CLE -10.5 failed by 5.5 points - Model underestimated Orlando's offensive upside despite injuries; Magic shot lights-out (131 points) in what became a high-scoring affair
Both remaining totals went over significantly - Model appears to systematically undervalue offensive variance and pace in competitive games, missing by 15.5 and 36.5 points
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
Confidence rating was appropriate - The one MEDIUM confidence spread pick hit decisively, suggesting proper risk assessment
Clear bias toward UNDERS - All 3 total predictions went under, with 2 missing badly. Model may be overweighting defensive metrics or injury impact on scoring while undervaluing pace and offensive adjustments
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Recalibrate injury impact on totals - Current model may overestimate how injuries suppress scoring in competitive games where teams compensate with faster pace or different rotations
Add pace multipliers for blowout scenarios - When spread edge is >15 points, adjust total predictions to account for garbage time scoring patterns and potential pace increases in non-competitive games