ATL +2.5 WIN: Hawks covered in a tight game (130-129), suggesting the model correctly identified value against a Pistons team missing Cunningham
MIN +1.5 WIN: Timberwolves won outright despite missing Edwards, indicating the model properly assessed home court advantage and Houston's inconsistency
WHAT MISSED
CHI @ PHI UNDER 240.5 LOSS: Total exploded to 294 points - the model severely underestimated offensive output when both teams are missing key players, creating faster pace and less defensive structure
MIL +13.5 LOSS: Bucks got blown out 99-130, failing to cover by 17.5 points. The model overvalued the large spread without properly accounting for how devastating Giannis's absence is to Milwaukee's competitiveness
MODEL CALIBRATION NOTES
No confidence ratings were provided in the original analysis, making calibration assessment impossible
The injury impact assessment appears inconsistent - correctly handled some star absences (Edwards, Cunningham) but badly miscalculated others (Giannis, Embiid/Maxey combo effect)
METHODOLOGY ADJUSTMENTS TO CONSIDER
Refine injury impact tiers: The current Tier 1/2/3 system needs subcategories for "franchise players" whose absence creates systemic team breakdowns (Giannis, Luka-level impact)
Pace adjustment for depleted rosters: When multiple rotation players are out, games often become higher-scoring due to weaker bench defense and faster tempo - build this correlation into total calculations
Overall: 2-4 record with major misses on totals suggests the model handles spreads reasonably but needs significant work on pace/total predictions.